Tesla's Mixed Q2 Results:
Auto Gross Margin: Excluding regulatory credits, Tesla's auto gross margin was 14.6%, missing the 16.2% estimate.
Regulatory Credits: Came in at $890 million, significantly higher than the $450 million consensus, potentially inflating adjusted EPS by 10 cents.
Earnings Miss: Despite a top-line beat, Tesla's EPS trailed expectations, leading to a sharp after-hours stock decline.
Market and Analyst Reactions:
Stock Performance: Tesla's stock closed Tuesday at $246.38, down 2.04%, and further declined 7.76% in after-hours trading to $227.25.
Gary Black's Commentary: The fund manager noted that excluding a $622 million restructuring charge (14 cents per share), adjusted earnings would have been 66 cents per share, above the 62-cent consensus. He attributed the weak stock price more to disappointing auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits than the EPS miss.
Gordon Johnson's Critique: The Tesla bear highlighted that over 50% of Tesla's operating income came from one-time zero-emission vehicle credit sales, which negatively impacted auto margins due to rate-buy-downs.
Mark Spiegel's Valuation: The Stanphyl Capital managing partner pointed out that despite 55% of Tesla’s operating income coming from emission credit sales, the overall operating margin was only 6.3%. He argued that Tesla's stock, given similar or better margins and growth rates of other automakers, should be valued around $8.40 per share based on a GAAP EPS run-rate of $1.68.
Additional Insights:
Forecast Concerns: Tesla’s volume growth rate for 2024 is expected to be notably lower than the 38% achieved in 2023, against Street forecasts of a marginal drop.
Free Cash Flow: Tesla's second-quarter free cash flow was $1.3 billion, significantly lower than the $1.9 billion consensus.
Valuation Multiples: Tesla shares trade at a trailing P/E multiple of 63 and a forward P/E multiple of 99.
Future Prospects:
Robotaxi Delay: New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu mentioned that the robotaxi unveil has been delayed from August 8 to October 10, and does not see it as an immediate catalyst.
Tesla's Strategic Focus: Musk’s comments suggested that the company would focus on deploying robotaxi services with high-reliability autonomy and potentially selling them in high volumes.
Overall Sentiment:
The report and subsequent reactions indicate significant skepticism about Tesla’s earnings quality and future valuation, primarily due to reliance on one-time regulatory credits and concerns about future growth and margins.
Auto Gross Margin: Excluding regulatory credits, Tesla's auto gross margin was 14.6%, missing the 16.2% estimate.
Regulatory Credits: Came in at $890 million, significantly higher than the $450 million consensus, potentially inflating adjusted EPS by 10 cents.
Earnings Miss: Despite a top-line beat, Tesla's EPS trailed expectations, leading to a sharp after-hours stock decline.
Market and Analyst Reactions:
Stock Performance: Tesla's stock closed Tuesday at $246.38, down 2.04%, and further declined 7.76% in after-hours trading to $227.25.
Gary Black's Commentary: The fund manager noted that excluding a $622 million restructuring charge (14 cents per share), adjusted earnings would have been 66 cents per share, above the 62-cent consensus. He attributed the weak stock price more to disappointing auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits than the EPS miss.
Gordon Johnson's Critique: The Tesla bear highlighted that over 50% of Tesla's operating income came from one-time zero-emission vehicle credit sales, which negatively impacted auto margins due to rate-buy-downs.
Mark Spiegel's Valuation: The Stanphyl Capital managing partner pointed out that despite 55% of Tesla’s operating income coming from emission credit sales, the overall operating margin was only 6.3%. He argued that Tesla's stock, given similar or better margins and growth rates of other automakers, should be valued around $8.40 per share based on a GAAP EPS run-rate of $1.68.
Additional Insights:
Forecast Concerns: Tesla’s volume growth rate for 2024 is expected to be notably lower than the 38% achieved in 2023, against Street forecasts of a marginal drop.
Free Cash Flow: Tesla's second-quarter free cash flow was $1.3 billion, significantly lower than the $1.9 billion consensus.
Valuation Multiples: Tesla shares trade at a trailing P/E multiple of 63 and a forward P/E multiple of 99.
Future Prospects:
Robotaxi Delay: New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu mentioned that the robotaxi unveil has been delayed from August 8 to October 10, and does not see it as an immediate catalyst.
Tesla's Strategic Focus: Musk’s comments suggested that the company would focus on deploying robotaxi services with high-reliability autonomy and potentially selling them in high volumes.
Overall Sentiment:
The report and subsequent reactions indicate significant skepticism about Tesla’s earnings quality and future valuation, primarily due to reliance on one-time regulatory credits and concerns about future growth and margins.