…Projects external reserves decline to $23.3bn by December
…As foreign investors withdraw N16bn from TBs, stock market in Q1’20
Fitch Ratings Agency yesterday said the country’s adherence to oil production cuts under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) agreement will deepen economic recession in Nigeria.
Fitch Ratings also projected a year-on-year (YoY) decline in external reserves by 32 percent to $23.3 billion in December 2020 from $38.6 billion in December 2019.
We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1mbpd for both years. We have adjusted our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3.0 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3.0 percent growth in 2021. Despite the OPEC+ deal, our oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35/barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and $45/barrel in 2021.
…As foreign investors withdraw N16bn from TBs, stock market in Q1’20
Fitch Ratings Agency yesterday said the country’s adherence to oil production cuts under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) agreement will deepen economic recession in Nigeria.
Fitch Ratings also projected a year-on-year (YoY) decline in external reserves by 32 percent to $23.3 billion in December 2020 from $38.6 billion in December 2019.
We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1mbpd for both years. We have adjusted our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3.0 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3.0 percent growth in 2021. Despite the OPEC+ deal, our oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35/barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and $45/barrel in 2021.