MCDONALD'S MISSES Q2 ESTIMATES ACROSS THE BOARD AS CONSUMERS PULL BACK ON DINING OUT

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Amara

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Jul 18, 2024
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McDonald's (MCD) reported Q2 earnings that fell short of Wall Street estimates in terms of revenue, earnings, and same-store sales, highlighting the impact of challenging macroeconomic conditions on the fast food giant.

Key Financials:
Revenue: $6.49 billion, up 2.01% year-over-year, but below the $6.63 billion expected.

Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.97, missing the expected $3.07.
Global Same-Store Sales: Decreased by 1%, compared to the expected 0.84% increase.

Regional Performance:
US Same-Store Sales: Decreased by 0.7%, marking the first decline in 16 quarters. This drop was attributed to reduced foot traffic, partially offset by menu price increases. Positive digital and delivery growth provided some relief.

International-Owned Locations: Sales declined by 1.1%, driven by negative sales growth in several markets, particularly France.

International Franchised Locations: Sales dropped by 1.3% year-over-year, influenced by ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East and declining sales in China. However, Latin America and Japan saw positive sales growth.

CEO's Remarks:
Chris Kempczinski, McDonald's CEO, acknowledged the more discerning spending habits of consumers. He emphasized the company's commitment to providing value and accelerating growth in areas such as chicken products and loyalty programs.

Strategic Initiatives:
In response to years of price hikes, McDonald's launched several limited-time bundle deals to offer value to customers. Notably, the $5 meal deal, introduced at the end of Q2 on June 25, has been extended through August due to its initial success.

This deal includes a choice of McDouble burger or McChicken sandwich, four-piece chicken McNuggets, small fries, and a small soft drink.

Analyst Insights:
Citi analyst Jon Tower expressed concerns about the effectiveness of near-term value initiatives in boosting traffic sufficiently to counteract negative sales trends.
BTIG analyst Peter Saleh suggested that the $5 meal deal might be extended into September, as McDonald's works on establishing a more permanent value menu, such as a revised Dollar Menu.

Loyalty Program Impact:
Loyalty members drove nearly $7 billion in digital sales across 50 markets in Q2, an increase from $6 billion in Q1. Over the past 12 months, these members accounted for $26 billion in systemwide sales.

Market Reaction:
McDonald's stock (MCD) showed slight fluctuations, closing at $252.00 (+0.21%) and reaching $253.25 (+0.50%) in pre-market trading as of the morning of the report.

Future Outlook:
Analysts and investors are closely watching McDonald's performance in the second half of the year to see if it can regain momentum in sales growth and foot traffic.

There are mixed sentiments about the sustainability of the $5 meal deal, as some franchisees report pressure on profit margins, leading to reduced marketing efforts for the promotion.

Reported Financial Metrics:
Revenue: $6.49 billion vs. $6.63 billion expected.
Adjusted EPS: $2.97 vs. $3.07 expected.

Global Same-Store Sales Growth: -1.0% vs. +0.84% expected.
US Same-Store Sales Growth: -0.7% vs. +1.04% expected.

International-Owned Same-Store Sales Growth: -1.1% vs. +1.85% expected.
International Franchised Same-Store Sales Growth: -1.3% vs. +0.41% expected.