Mega-Tech Earnings, AI Investments, and European Inflation Trends.

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Amara

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Jul 18, 2024
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Mega-Tech Earnings Dominate Focus
Earnings reports from major tech firms continue to command market attention, with Apple and Amazon set to release their results today, following reports from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta. Nvidia, the last of the "Magnificent 7," will report in three weeks, adding to the anticipation. Tesla led this earnings cycle on a positive note last week, generating investor excitement with strong EV sales projections. Alphabet also exceeded profit and revenue expectations, driven by YouTube ad sales and cloud business growth.

AI Investment Concerns
Despite strong initial earnings reports, investor sentiment turned cautious after Microsoft and Meta highlighted substantial AI-related expenses, raising questions about profitability. Alphabet also hinted at sustained AI spending but did not initially alarm investors. Wall Street's 2023 rally, largely fueled by AI optimism, could face volatility if elevated AI expenses impact future earnings across the tech sector.

Chip Sector Challenges
The recent 10% drop in AMD's stock following weak AI chip sales underscored potential risks in the sector, with shares of Nvidia and other chipmakers also affected. This performance is a reminder that, while AI remains a growth driver, the supply-demand balance in hardware supporting AI workloads may face near-term constraints.

European Bank Earnings and Rate Expectations
In Europe, key bank earnings reports are in the spotlight, with BNP Paribas, SocGen, and ING reporting today. At Santander’s banking conference in Madrid, notable speakers, including Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva, will discuss inflation and central bank policies. With eurozone inflation moderating faster than anticipated, traders are looking for signs that the ECB may consider accelerating rate cuts.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau both suggested that inflation control efforts are nearing completion, signaling potential shifts in rate policy.

Global Inflation and Central Bank Actions
The Bank of Japan chose to keep rates steady, citing economic risks from the U.S., but indicated a cautious approach to normalizing policy over time. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator, is due today, along with monthly payroll data later in the week. Given recent robust U.S. economic indicators, analysts expect the Fed to maintain its patient stance on rate cuts, although mixed signals in this week’s data could impact decision-making at the next meeting.