NGX analysts have labeled the current bull run a "super-cycle" due to massive year-to-date gains exceeding 30% in 2026 after 51% in 2025, with the All-Share Index pushing past 200,000 points and market cap above ₦130 trillion.thisdaylive+1
Bullish Projections to Year-End
- ASI targets: Many forecasts see 220,000–250,000 by Q4 2026, driven by earnings growth in banks (15–20% EPS upside), cement (infrastructure demand), and telecoms.[nairametrics]
- Key catalysts: Sustained FX stability, lower inflation (projected to 18–20%), and pension fund inflows could add another ₦20–30 trillion in market cap.[nairametrics]
- Sector leaders: Financials and materials stay hot; watch for oil & gas rotation if global crude holds $70+.[nairametrics]
Bearish Risks and Pullback Scenarios
- Profit-taking: Valuations at 1-year forward P/E of 12–14x (above historical 8x) suggest 10–15% corrections toward 185,000 ASI are normal in super-cycles.[nairametrics]
- Macro threats: If inflation rebounds or CBN hikes rates sharply, high-beta small caps could drop 20–30% while blue chips hold better.[nairametrics]
- Consensus pullback: Most see dips as buying opportunities, with super-cycle intact unless global risk-off hits emerging markets hard.[nairametrics]