Nigerian Banks in H2 2025: Will Recapitalisation & Dividends Define Performance?
The second half of 2025 is shaping up to be make or break for Nigerian banks, and analysts say it all comes down to two key factors:
Progress with the ongoing recapitalisation process
Ability to maintain dividend payments
According to Comercio Partners’ H2 2025 Outlook, titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation”, these two elements will significantly influence the direction of the banking sector in the months ahead.
Recapitalisation Update: 8 Banks Already Compliant
Recall that in March 2024, the CBN raised the capital base requirements:
• N500bn for international banks
• N200bn for national banks
• N50bn for regional banks
• N20bn/N10bn for non-interest national/regional banks
With a March 2026 deadline, the CBN recently announced that eight banks have already met the recapitalisation target, while others are still on the journey.
Other Regulatory Hurdles Ahead…
The CBN also ended forbearance loans and revised the Single Obligor Limits, mandating all affected banks to submit detailed Capital Restoration Plans.
These plans must include:
• Cost-cutting strategies
• Risk reduction methods
• Business model restructuring
• Steps to restore regulatory compliance
What Analysts Are Saying…
Comercio Partners highlighted that:
“Market performance will reward recapitalisation progress, dividend reinstatement, and consistent profitability. The narrative is shifting from exponential growth to sustainable profitability.”
Key expectations for H2 2025:
• Net interest margins may tighten due to high funding costs
• FX gains will likely reduce as naira stabilises
• Non-interest income will normalise
• Focus shifts to operational efficiency
Banks like GTCO with strong balance sheets and steady dividend records are expected to do well.
But banks like Access, Zenith, and First Bank, facing regulatory scrutiny, may see valuation pressure until dividend clarity returns.
Looking Ahead: 2025–2026 Success Will Rely On…
To thrive through the 2025–2026 cycle, banks must:
1. Manage funding costs effectively
2. Meet recapitalisation targets on time
3. Enforce asset quality controls to minimise loan risks
Final Word from Analysts:
“Even near-term surprises could boost bank valuations if they stick to dividend guidance. We remain positive on banks with clean balance sheets and scalable earning models.” — Cardinalstone
The second half of 2025 is shaping up to be make or break for Nigerian banks, and analysts say it all comes down to two key factors:
Progress with the ongoing recapitalisation process Ability to maintain dividend paymentsAccording to Comercio Partners’ H2 2025 Outlook, titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation”, these two elements will significantly influence the direction of the banking sector in the months ahead.
Recapitalisation Update: 8 Banks Already Compliant
Recall that in March 2024, the CBN raised the capital base requirements:
• N500bn for international banks
• N200bn for national banks
• N50bn for regional banks
• N20bn/N10bn for non-interest national/regional banks
With a March 2026 deadline, the CBN recently announced that eight banks have already met the recapitalisation target, while others are still on the journey.
Other Regulatory Hurdles Ahead…The CBN also ended forbearance loans and revised the Single Obligor Limits, mandating all affected banks to submit detailed Capital Restoration Plans.
These plans must include:
• Cost-cutting strategies
• Risk reduction methods
• Business model restructuring
• Steps to restore regulatory compliance
What Analysts Are Saying…
Comercio Partners highlighted that:
“Market performance will reward recapitalisation progress, dividend reinstatement, and consistent profitability. The narrative is shifting from exponential growth to sustainable profitability.”
Key expectations for H2 2025:
• Net interest margins may tighten due to high funding costs
• FX gains will likely reduce as naira stabilises
• Non-interest income will normalise
• Focus shifts to operational efficiency
Banks like GTCO with strong balance sheets and steady dividend records are expected to do well.
But banks like Access, Zenith, and First Bank, facing regulatory scrutiny, may see valuation pressure until dividend clarity returns.Looking Ahead: 2025–2026 Success Will Rely On…
To thrive through the 2025–2026 cycle, banks must:
1. Manage funding costs effectively
2. Meet recapitalisation targets on time
3. Enforce asset quality controls to minimise loan risks
Final Word from Analysts:
“Even near-term surprises could boost bank valuations if they stick to dividend guidance. We remain positive on banks with clean balance sheets and scalable earning models.” — Cardinalstone