Nigerian Banks in H2 2025: Will Recapitalisation & Dividends Define Performance?
The second half of 2025 is shaping up to be make or break for Nigerian banks, and analysts say it all comes down to two key factors:
✅ Progress with the ongoing recapitalisation process
✅ Ability to maintain dividend payments
According to Comercio Partners’ H2 2025 Outlook, titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation”, these two elements will significantly influence the direction of the banking sector in the months ahead.
Recapitalisation Update: 8 Banks Already Compliant
Recall that in March 2024, the CBN raised the capital base requirements:
• N500bn for international banks
• N200bn for national banks
• N50bn for regional banks
• N20bn/N10bn for non-interest national/regional banks
With a March 2026 deadline, the CBN recently announced that eight banks have already met the recapitalisation target, while others are still on the journey.
⚠️ Other Regulatory Hurdles Ahead…
The CBN also ended forbearance loans and revised the Single Obligor Limits, mandating all affected banks to submit detailed Capital Restoration Plans.
These plans must include:
• Cost-cutting strategies
• Risk reduction methods
• Business model restructuring
• Steps to restore regulatory compliance
What Analysts Are Saying…
Comercio Partners highlighted that:
“Market performance will reward recapitalisation progress, dividend reinstatement, and consistent profitability. The narrative is shifting from exponential growth to sustainable profitability.”
Key expectations for H2 2025:
• Net interest margins may tighten due to high funding costs
• FX gains will likely reduce as naira stabilises
• Non-interest income will normalise
• Focus shifts to operational efficiency
Banks like GTCO with strong balance sheets and steady dividend records are expected to do well.
⚠️ But banks like Access, Zenith, and First Bank, facing regulatory scrutiny, may see valuation pressure until dividend clarity returns.
Looking Ahead: 2025–2026 Success Will Rely On…
To thrive through the 2025–2026 cycle, banks must:
1. Manage funding costs effectively
2. Meet recapitalisation targets on time
3. Enforce asset quality controls to minimise loan risks
Final Word from Analysts:
“Even near-term surprises could boost bank valuations if they stick to dividend guidance. We remain positive on banks with clean balance sheets and scalable earning models.” — Cardinalstone
The second half of 2025 is shaping up to be make or break for Nigerian banks, and analysts say it all comes down to two key factors:
✅ Progress with the ongoing recapitalisation process
✅ Ability to maintain dividend payments
According to Comercio Partners’ H2 2025 Outlook, titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation”, these two elements will significantly influence the direction of the banking sector in the months ahead.
Recapitalisation Update: 8 Banks Already Compliant
Recall that in March 2024, the CBN raised the capital base requirements:
• N500bn for international banks
• N200bn for national banks
• N50bn for regional banks
• N20bn/N10bn for non-interest national/regional banks
With a March 2026 deadline, the CBN recently announced that eight banks have already met the recapitalisation target, while others are still on the journey.
⚠️ Other Regulatory Hurdles Ahead…
The CBN also ended forbearance loans and revised the Single Obligor Limits, mandating all affected banks to submit detailed Capital Restoration Plans.
These plans must include:
• Cost-cutting strategies
• Risk reduction methods
• Business model restructuring
• Steps to restore regulatory compliance
What Analysts Are Saying…
Comercio Partners highlighted that:
“Market performance will reward recapitalisation progress, dividend reinstatement, and consistent profitability. The narrative is shifting from exponential growth to sustainable profitability.”
Key expectations for H2 2025:
• Net interest margins may tighten due to high funding costs
• FX gains will likely reduce as naira stabilises
• Non-interest income will normalise
• Focus shifts to operational efficiency
Banks like GTCO with strong balance sheets and steady dividend records are expected to do well.
⚠️ But banks like Access, Zenith, and First Bank, facing regulatory scrutiny, may see valuation pressure until dividend clarity returns.
Looking Ahead: 2025–2026 Success Will Rely On…
To thrive through the 2025–2026 cycle, banks must:
1. Manage funding costs effectively
2. Meet recapitalisation targets on time
3. Enforce asset quality controls to minimise loan risks
Final Word from Analysts:
“Even near-term surprises could boost bank valuations if they stick to dividend guidance. We remain positive on banks with clean balance sheets and scalable earning models.” — Cardinalstone