Nigeria’s central bank reports that the country earned 31.54 billion dollars from crude oil exports in 2025, a notable decline from the previous year despite higher production volumes. The report underscores how deeply the Nigerian economy still depends on crude exports, even as the structure of external trade and the oil and gas sector begins to shift.
The central bank’s report also shows that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of 14.04 billion dollars in 2025, down from 19.03 billion dollars in 2024, with policymakers explicitly linking this weakening to lower crude export receipts. Overall, the country’s balance of payments surplus narrowed to 4.23 billion dollars from 6.83 billion dollars in the prior year, even as external reserves rose to 45.75 billion dollars, indicating some improvement in buffers despite pressure on oil earnings.
Production data show that Nigeria still fell short of its own budget target and OPEC quota, producing a combined 599.64 million barrels of crude and condensate—166.86 million barrels below its planned volume for the year. Output was uneven across months, constrained by outages, operational disruptions, oil theft, and vandalism, causing the country to miss its OPEC quota in nine months of the year and limiting its ability to fully benefit from international price conditions.
A key development is the emergence of large‑scale domestic refining, notably through the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has begun to reshape Nigeria’s oil trade flows. Instead of simply exporting crude and importing refined fuels, Nigeria is increasingly processing crude locally and exporting refined products: one report attributes about 5.85 billion dollars in export value in 2025 to refined petroleum shipments from the Dangote facility alone, even as the plant imported roughly 3.74 billion dollars’ worth of crude feedstock.
Net outflows in the primary income account surged by around 60.88 percent to 9.09 billion dollars, largely because of increased dividend and interest payments to foreign investors in the oil and non‑oil sectors. Remittance inflows and other secondary income—put at about 23.20 billion dollars in 2025, slightly lower than the 24.88 billion dollars recorded in 2024—remain an important cushion for the external sector, helping to offset weaker oil revenues and higher income and services outflows.
At the same time, the report points to a structural transition already under way, with domestic refining and gas exports beginning to play a larger role in supporting the goods account and foreign‑exchange inflows. Policymakers are responding by urging oil companies to scale up output and investment—through quick‑win strategies such as in‑field well development and re‑entry programmes—while the central bank simultaneously targets lower inflation and stronger external buffers to stabilise the macroeconomic environment.
Headline Numbers From The Report
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments data, crude oil export earnings fell from 36.85 billion dollars in 2024 to 31.54 billion dollars in 2025, a drop of 5.31 billion dollars or 14.41 percent year‑on‑year. This decline occurred even though official oil production figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show total crude output rising from 408.68 million barrels in 2024 to 530.41 million barrels in 2025, plus condensate that brought total liquids to 599.64 million barrels.The central bank’s report also shows that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of 14.04 billion dollars in 2025, down from 19.03 billion dollars in 2024, with policymakers explicitly linking this weakening to lower crude export receipts. Overall, the country’s balance of payments surplus narrowed to 4.23 billion dollars from 6.83 billion dollars in the prior year, even as external reserves rose to 45.75 billion dollars, indicating some improvement in buffers despite pressure on oil earnings.
Why Earnings Fell Despite Higher Output
The report and related analyses highlight a paradox: Nigeria pumped more crude in 2025 but earned less hard currency from exports. Several factors help explain this outcome, including global price dynamics, the quality and timing of Nigeria’s exports, and increasing domestic processing that diverts some crude away from direct export channels.Production data show that Nigeria still fell short of its own budget target and OPEC quota, producing a combined 599.64 million barrels of crude and condensate—166.86 million barrels below its planned volume for the year. Output was uneven across months, constrained by outages, operational disruptions, oil theft, and vandalism, causing the country to miss its OPEC quota in nine months of the year and limiting its ability to fully benefit from international price conditions.
Shifts In Trade Structure And Dangote Refinery’s Role
While crude oil exports weakened, the central bank’s data show that Nigeria’s goods account remained in surplus and even improved, supported by gas and refined product exports. The goods account surplus grew to 14.51 billion dollars in 2025 from 13.17 billion dollars in 2024, reflecting the early impact of new refining and export capacity within the country.A key development is the emergence of large‑scale domestic refining, notably through the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has begun to reshape Nigeria’s oil trade flows. Instead of simply exporting crude and importing refined fuels, Nigeria is increasingly processing crude locally and exporting refined products: one report attributes about 5.85 billion dollars in export value in 2025 to refined petroleum shipments from the Dangote facility alone, even as the plant imported roughly 3.74 billion dollars’ worth of crude feedstock.
External Accounts: Services, Income, And Remittances
Beyond merchandise trade, the report highlights growing outflows in services and primary income that erode some of the gains from the goods surplus. Net outflows in the services account rose to 14.58 billion dollars from 13.36 billion dollars, driven by higher payments for transport, travel, and insurance, which reflect Nigeria’s dependence on foreign service providers and overseas spending by residents.Net outflows in the primary income account surged by around 60.88 percent to 9.09 billion dollars, largely because of increased dividend and interest payments to foreign investors in the oil and non‑oil sectors. Remittance inflows and other secondary income—put at about 23.20 billion dollars in 2025, slightly lower than the 24.88 billion dollars recorded in 2024—remain an important cushion for the external sector, helping to offset weaker oil revenues and higher income and services outflows.
Implications For Policy And The Economy
The central bank’s crude oil earnings figures underline Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to swings in the global oil market and domestic production shortfalls. A 5.31‑billion‑dollar fall in crude export earnings, combined with rising external payment obligations, limits fiscal space, complicates exchange‑rate management, and heightens the urgency of diversifying both exports and revenue sources.At the same time, the report points to a structural transition already under way, with domestic refining and gas exports beginning to play a larger role in supporting the goods account and foreign‑exchange inflows. Policymakers are responding by urging oil companies to scale up output and investment—through quick‑win strategies such as in‑field well development and re‑entry programmes—while the central bank simultaneously targets lower inflation and stronger external buffers to stabilise the macroeconomic environment.