Oil Prices Decline as US Output Faces Push to Expand, Israel Nears Ceasefire with Hezbollah

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Samiat

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Nov 12, 2024
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Oil prices dropped on Monday as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent called for increased U.S. oil production and Israel signaled it is close to reaching a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.

Market Dynamics
Brent crude (BZ=F) slipped below $75 per barrel after surging nearly 6% last week due to escalating geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) hovered around $71. According to The Wall Street Journal, Bessent advised President-elect Donald Trump to advocate for an additional 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. production, significantly higher than the current output of approximately 13 million bpd.

The potential increase in U.S. production raises concerns about oversupply in 2024, just as OPEC prepares for a critical meeting this weekend to decide whether to add more barrels to the market. Since mid-October, crude prices have fluctuated within a $6 range, reflecting the delicate balance between geopolitical supply threats and the risk of a global surplus.

Geopolitical Tensions Persist
Iran announced plans last week to expand its nuclear fuel production after being censured by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. This move comes as the nation braces for potential sanctions under a second Trump administration. Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has intensified, with both sides deploying longer-range missiles, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to global oil flows.

Middle East Developments
In a move that could ease market anxiety, Israel’s ambassador to the U.S. revealed on Monday that the country is “close to a deal” with Hezbollah. However, it remains uncertain whether the Iran-backed militant group will accept the proposed terms. A ceasefire agreement could alleviate fears of disruptions from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly one-third of global oil production.

OPEC’s Next Move
Major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, expect OPEC to delay a planned production increase for the third time during its upcoming meeting. The organization faces a delicate decision as it weighs geopolitical uncertainties against the risk of exacerbating a supply glut in 2024.

The interplay of these factors will likely keep oil markets volatile in the near term, with prices sensitive to both geopolitical developments and OPEC’s upcoming policy decisions.