Seventh Year of the Bulls? Nigeria’s Stock Market Sets the Stage for 2026
Nigeria’s capital market ended 2025 on a historic high, delivering one of the best equity performances globally . With strong momentum carrying into 2026, investors are asking a big question: Can the bulls run for a seventh consecutive year?
2025: A Record-Breaking Year
• Nigerian equities returned 51.19%, placing the NGX among the top five performing markets worldwide
• Total market capitalisation gained ₦32.13 trillion, outperforming major markets like the US, UK, China, Germany, and France.
• New capital raisings hit nearly ₦7 trillion, reinforcing the market’s role as a funding engine for both government and corporates.
• Commercial paper issuance surged close to ₦1 trillion, showing how companies are leaning more on capital markets amid high interest rates .
Strong Start to 2026
Despite seasonal spending pressures, the market entered 2026 with strong bullish momentum:
• NGX market capitalisation crossed the ₦100 trillion milestone
• Analysts see this as an early signal of sustained optimism, though caution that the year is still young.
⚖️ A High-Stakes Year: Opportunities & Risks
2026 comes with unique dynamics:
• It is a pre-election year, typically associated with policy uncertainty and political noise ️
• It is the first full year of implementation for the new Investment & Securities Act (ISA) 2025 and updated Tax Acts
• Ongoing banking and insurance recapitalisation will drive equity raisings, mergers, acquisitions, and possible dilutions.
While analysts expect fewer casualties than previous recap cycles, risks such as distress sales, forced mergers, or regulatory takeovers remain on the radar ⚠️.
What Analysts Are Saying
• Afrinvest projects up to 40.9% upside for the NGX-ASI, driven by easing inflation, FX stability, pre-election liquidity, and possible big-ticket listings like Dangote Petrochemicals .
• Cordros Capital forecasts a 34.9% return, citing improved earnings, macro stability, and attractive valuations.
• GTI Capital highlights potential listings from Dangote Refinery, NNPC, Dangote Fertiliser, and Flutterwave, which could significantly deepen market liquidity and diversification .
A Market That Defied History
Historically, Nigerian markets struggled in pre-election years. That trend has been broken:
• Positive returns recorded consistently from 2020 to 2025, even during COVID-19.
• A positive return in 2026 would mark the seventh straight bullish year—a rare feat in emerging markets .
️ Government & Regulatory Support
President Bola Tinubu reaffirmed his pro-market stance, describing the stock market as a mirror of the economy:
• Promised continued reforms to sustain investor confidence
• Highlighted strong pipelines for listings in energy, tech, telecoms, and infrastructure.
Regulators including the SEC and NGX Group also pledged:
• Stronger enforcement under ISA 2025
• Improved liquidity via a shift from T+3 to T+2 settlement
• Enhanced investor protection and market transparency .
The Big Picture
While risks remain—policy missteps, inflation resurgence, FX volatility—the foundation for another strong year appears intact. If macro stability holds and reforms stay consistent, 2026 could extend Nigeria’s historic bull run .
Bottom line:
The bulls are still in control—but discipline, policy clarity, and investor confidence will determine how far they run in 2026.
Nigeria’s capital market ended 2025 on a historic high, delivering one of the best equity performances globally . With strong momentum carrying into 2026, investors are asking a big question: Can the bulls run for a seventh consecutive year?
2025: A Record-Breaking Year
• Nigerian equities returned 51.19%, placing the NGX among the top five performing markets worldwide
• Total market capitalisation gained ₦32.13 trillion, outperforming major markets like the US, UK, China, Germany, and France.
• New capital raisings hit nearly ₦7 trillion, reinforcing the market’s role as a funding engine for both government and corporates.
• Commercial paper issuance surged close to ₦1 trillion, showing how companies are leaning more on capital markets amid high interest rates .
Strong Start to 2026
Despite seasonal spending pressures, the market entered 2026 with strong bullish momentum:
• NGX market capitalisation crossed the ₦100 trillion milestone
• Analysts see this as an early signal of sustained optimism, though caution that the year is still young.
⚖️ A High-Stakes Year: Opportunities & Risks
2026 comes with unique dynamics:
• It is a pre-election year, typically associated with policy uncertainty and political noise ️
• It is the first full year of implementation for the new Investment & Securities Act (ISA) 2025 and updated Tax Acts
• Ongoing banking and insurance recapitalisation will drive equity raisings, mergers, acquisitions, and possible dilutions.
While analysts expect fewer casualties than previous recap cycles, risks such as distress sales, forced mergers, or regulatory takeovers remain on the radar ⚠️.
What Analysts Are Saying
• Afrinvest projects up to 40.9% upside for the NGX-ASI, driven by easing inflation, FX stability, pre-election liquidity, and possible big-ticket listings like Dangote Petrochemicals .
• Cordros Capital forecasts a 34.9% return, citing improved earnings, macro stability, and attractive valuations.
• GTI Capital highlights potential listings from Dangote Refinery, NNPC, Dangote Fertiliser, and Flutterwave, which could significantly deepen market liquidity and diversification .
A Market That Defied History
Historically, Nigerian markets struggled in pre-election years. That trend has been broken:
• Positive returns recorded consistently from 2020 to 2025, even during COVID-19.
• A positive return in 2026 would mark the seventh straight bullish year—a rare feat in emerging markets .
️ Government & Regulatory Support
President Bola Tinubu reaffirmed his pro-market stance, describing the stock market as a mirror of the economy:
• Promised continued reforms to sustain investor confidence
• Highlighted strong pipelines for listings in energy, tech, telecoms, and infrastructure.
Regulators including the SEC and NGX Group also pledged:
• Stronger enforcement under ISA 2025
• Improved liquidity via a shift from T+3 to T+2 settlement
• Enhanced investor protection and market transparency .
The Big Picture
While risks remain—policy missteps, inflation resurgence, FX volatility—the foundation for another strong year appears intact. If macro stability holds and reforms stay consistent, 2026 could extend Nigeria’s historic bull run .
Bottom line:
The bulls are still in control—but discipline, policy clarity, and investor confidence will determine how far they run in 2026.