US Stock Performance on Presidential Inauguration Dates
Investors often watch stock market movements closely during presidential inaugurations to gauge market sentiment. Historically, U.S. equity performance on inauguration day—or the next trading day if the inauguration falls on a market holiday—has been mixed. While the S&P 500 has typically posted a small average decline of 0.27%, recent inaugurations have seen gains.
Key Insights:
* The last three inaugurations resulted in market gains.
* Trump's first inauguration (2017): S&P 500 rose 0.34%.
* Biden's inauguration (2021): S&P 500 gained 1.39%, the largest inauguration-day increase since Ronald Reagan's second term in 1985.
* Long-term trends (since 1949):
* S&P 500: Average decline of 0.27%.
* Dow Jones Industrial Average: Average decline of 0.24%.
* Nasdaq Composite: Average decline of 0.35% (data available only after its launch).
Additional Notes:
1. Market was closed for some inaugurations, so the performance reflects the next trading day.
2. The S&P 500 was officially launched in March 1957, but earlier data was back-tested by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
3. Data for Gerald Ford's inauguration (August 9, 1974) after Nixon's resignation is excluded.
Summary Statistics:
* Average change:
* S&P 500: -0.27%
* Nasdaq: -0.35%
* Dow Jones: -0.24%
* Median change:
* S&P 500: -0.04%
* Nasdaq: 0.15%
* Dow Jones: -0.11%
While inaugurations don’t guarantee market movements, investors often view them as opportunities to assess sentiment and potential policy impacts.
Investors often watch stock market movements closely during presidential inaugurations to gauge market sentiment. Historically, U.S. equity performance on inauguration day—or the next trading day if the inauguration falls on a market holiday—has been mixed. While the S&P 500 has typically posted a small average decline of 0.27%, recent inaugurations have seen gains.
Key Insights:
* The last three inaugurations resulted in market gains.
* Trump's first inauguration (2017): S&P 500 rose 0.34%.
* Biden's inauguration (2021): S&P 500 gained 1.39%, the largest inauguration-day increase since Ronald Reagan's second term in 1985.
* Long-term trends (since 1949):
* S&P 500: Average decline of 0.27%.
* Dow Jones Industrial Average: Average decline of 0.24%.
* Nasdaq Composite: Average decline of 0.35% (data available only after its launch).
Additional Notes:
1. Market was closed for some inaugurations, so the performance reflects the next trading day.
2. The S&P 500 was officially launched in March 1957, but earlier data was back-tested by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
3. Data for Gerald Ford's inauguration (August 9, 1974) after Nixon's resignation is excluded.
Summary Statistics:
* Average change:
* S&P 500: -0.27%
* Nasdaq: -0.35%
* Dow Jones: -0.24%
* Median change:
* S&P 500: -0.04%
* Nasdaq: 0.15%
* Dow Jones: -0.11%
While inaugurations don’t guarantee market movements, investors often view them as opportunities to assess sentiment and potential policy impacts.