Investors Pull Back as Treasury Bill Subscriptions Fall to ₦6.13 Trillion

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Olori Uwem

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Mar 18, 2024
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Investors Pull Back as Treasury Bill Subscriptions Fall to ₦6.13 Trillion

Investor appetite for Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) weakened at the start of 2026 as falling yields reduced the attractiveness of the short-term government securities.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that total subscription to NTBs dropped significantly in the first two months of the year despite continued investor participation in government debt instruments.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments.

1️⃣ NTB Subscriptions Drop Sharply

Total investor subscription to Treasury Bills between January and February 2026 stood at ₦6.13 trillion.

This represents a 37% decline compared with the ₦9.68 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.

The drop signals that some investors are becoming less enthusiastic about Treasury Bills, largely because yields have started to fall.

2️⃣ January Recorded the Bulk of Investor Demand

In January 2026, investors subscribed about ₦4.69 trillion worth of NTBs.

This was a significant jump compared with the ₦1.54 trillion recorded in February 2025, reflecting strong demand early in the year as investors tried to lock in attractive yields before they declined further.

3️⃣ Government Offered More Bills but Raised Less Money

Interestingly, the government increased the amount of Treasury Bills offered to investors.

During the first two months of 2026:

• About ₦2.3 trillion worth of NTBs were offered to investors
• This represents a 51.8% increase compared with the ₦1.52 trillion offered during the same period in 2025

However, the CBN eventually allotted about ₦2.1 trillion, which is 23% lower than the ₦2.72 trillion raised during the same period last year.

This shows that despite strong subscription figures, actual borrowings from the market declined.

4️⃣ Treasury Bill Yields Have Declined

One of the main reasons for the drop in investor enthusiasm is the decline in Treasury Bill yields.

Recent auction results show:

• 364-Day NTB yield dropped to about 16.99% from 18.43% last year
• 182-Day NTB yield fell to about 16.65% from 18%
• 91-Day NTB yield declined to about 15.84% from 17%

Lower yields reduce the income investors earn, making the instrument slightly less attractive compared with when rates were higher.

5️⃣ CBN Is Intentionally Reducing Yields

The drop in yields is partly due to policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The apex bank has been scaling back the high discount rates previously offered on Treasury Bills because:

• Investor demand remains strong
• Inflation has started to decline
• Monetary policy is being adjusted gradually

This strategy helps the CBN manage liquidity in the financial system and support economic stability.

6️⃣ Inflation Is Beginning to Decline

Nigeria’s inflation rate has shown signs of easing.

As of January 2026, inflation stood at about 15.05%, representing a gradual decline compared with previous months.

Lower inflation typically leads to lower interest rates over time, which partly explains the declining Treasury Bill yields.

7️⃣ Investors Prefer Long-Term Treasury Bills

Despite the overall decline in subscriptions, longer-tenor Treasury Bills remain the most popular among investors.

Out of the ₦6.13 trillion total subscription, about ₦5.8 trillion went into longer-maturity instruments, particularly the 364-day Treasury Bills.

This suggests that investors are trying to lock in current yields for a longer period before rates fall further.

8️⃣ Interest Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) slightly to 26.50%.

The rate cut reflects:

• slowing inflation
• improving foreign exchange stability
• efforts to support economic growth

However, analysts say the reduction may not immediately cause a major drop in fixed-income yields.

9️⃣ Analysts Expect Yields to Decline Slowly

According to analysts at Cordros Research, yields in the fixed-income market may decline gradually rather than sharply.

Several factors will continue to influence the market, including:

• Government borrowing needs
• Liquidity conditions in the banking system
• The pace of inflation decline
• Future monetary policy decisions

What This Means for Investors

The current situation suggests that:

• Treasury Bills are still safe investments backed by the government
• However, returns are gradually declining
• Investors may increasingly seek longer-tenor instruments to preserve yield levels

For fixed-income investors, the market is entering a phase where yield compression may become a key theme in 2026.
 
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Olori Uwem said:
Investors Pull Back as Treasury Bill Subscriptions Fall to ₦6.13 Trillion

Investor appetite for Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) weakened at the start of 2026 as falling yields reduced the attractiveness of the short-term government securities.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that total subscription to NTBs dropped significantly in the first two months of the year despite continued investor participation in government debt instruments.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments.

1️⃣ NTB Subscriptions Drop Sharply

Total investor subscription to Treasury Bills between January and February 2026 stood at ₦6.13 trillion.

This represents a 37% decline compared with the ₦9.68 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.

The drop signals that some investors are becoming less enthusiastic about Treasury Bills, largely because yields have started to fall.

2️⃣ January Recorded the Bulk of Investor Demand

In January 2026, investors subscribed about ₦4.69 trillion worth of NTBs.

This was a significant jump compared with the ₦1.54 trillion recorded in February 2025, reflecting strong demand early in the year as investors tried to lock in attractive yields before they declined further.

3️⃣ Government Offered More Bills but Raised Less Money

Interestingly, the government increased the amount of Treasury Bills offered to investors.

During the first two months of 2026:

• About ₦2.3 trillion worth of NTBs were offered to investors
• This represents a 51.8% increase compared with the ₦1.52 trillion offered during the same period in 2025

However, the CBN eventually allotted about ₦2.1 trillion, which is 23% lower than the ₦2.72 trillion raised during the same period last year.

This shows that despite strong subscription figures, actual borrowings from the market declined.

4️⃣ Treasury Bill Yields Have Declined

One of the main reasons for the drop in investor enthusiasm is the decline in Treasury Bill yields.

Recent auction results show:

• 364-Day NTB yield dropped to about 16.99% from 18.43% last year
• 182-Day NTB yield fell to about 16.65% from 18%
• 91-Day NTB yield declined to about 15.84% from 17%

Lower yields reduce the income investors earn, making the instrument slightly less attractive compared with when rates were higher.

5️⃣ CBN Is Intentionally Reducing Yields

The drop in yields is partly due to policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The apex bank has been scaling back the high discount rates previously offered on Treasury Bills because:

• Investor demand remains strong
• Inflation has started to decline
• Monetary policy is being adjusted gradually

This strategy helps the CBN manage liquidity in the financial system and support economic stability.

6️⃣ Inflation Is Beginning to Decline

Nigeria’s inflation rate has shown signs of easing.

As of January 2026, inflation stood at about 15.05%, representing a gradual decline compared with previous months.

Lower inflation typically leads to lower interest rates over time, which partly explains the declining Treasury Bill yields.

7️⃣ Investors Prefer Long-Term Treasury Bills

Despite the overall decline in subscriptions, longer-tenor Treasury Bills remain the most popular among investors.

Out of the ₦6.13 trillion total subscription, about ₦5.8 trillion went into longer-maturity instruments, particularly the 364-day Treasury Bills.

This suggests that investors are trying to lock in current yields for a longer period before rates fall further.

8️⃣ Interest Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) slightly to 26.50%.

The rate cut reflects:

• slowing inflation
• improving foreign exchange stability
• efforts to support economic growth

However, analysts say the reduction may not immediately cause a major drop in fixed-income yields.

9️⃣ Analysts Expect Yields to Decline Slowly

According to analysts at Cordros Research, yields in the fixed-income market may decline gradually rather than sharply.

Several factors will continue to influence the market, including:

• Government borrowing needs
• Liquidity conditions in the banking system
• The pace of inflation decline
• Future monetary policy decisions

What This Means for Investors

The current situation suggests that:

• Treasury Bills are still safe investments backed by the government
• However, returns are gradually declining
• Investors may increasingly seek longer-tenor instruments to preserve yield levels

For fixed-income investors, the market is entering a phase where yield compression may become a key theme in 2026.
Click to expand...
Investor interest in Nigerian Treasury Bills seems to be slowing, with subscriptions down to ₦6.13 trillion as yields dip.
People are still going for the longer-term bills, but with returns tightening, many are starting to rethink their fixed-income strategies.
 
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igwe emmanuel said:
Investor interest in Nigerian Treasury Bills seems to be slowing, with subscriptions down to ₦6.13 trillion as yields dip.
People are still going for the longer-term bills, but with returns tightening, many are starting to rethink their fixed-income strategies.
Click to expand...
Hmm, that's why I led my point on a post I came across here, equity stocks its now more preferred than treasury bill that if you buy in a good companies unless you have large amount of money then treasury bill is still good.
 
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Think of Treasury Bills like a high-interest savings account with the government. Last year, the government was "paying" very high interest (around 18%) to borrow money from people. Now, they have dropped that pay to around 16%. Because the "reward" is smaller, investors aren't rushing in with as much cash as they did before.
 
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Exactly, when the interest was around 18%, a lot more people were eager to put their money in. Now that it’s lower, some investors will naturally start looking at other options.
Blessed Amara said:
Think of Treasury Bills like a high-interest savings account with the government. Last year, the government was "paying" very high interest (around 18%) to borrow money from people. Now, they have dropped that pay to around 16%. Because the "reward" is smaller, investors aren't rushing in with as much cash as they did before.
Click to expand...
 
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Mr.Simon said:
Hmm, that's why I led my point on a post I came across here, equity stocks its now more preferred than treasury bill that if you buy in a good companies unless you have large amount of money then treasury bill is still good.
Click to expand...
Treasury Bills still okay in its little way, if it can beat inflation rate
 
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I love the analogy, @Blessed Amara! Thinking of NTBs as a 'government savings account' makes it so much easier for beginners to grasp. And @Mr.Simon, you hit on a vital point—the 'shift to equity' happens exactly when these fixed-income yields start to compress. It’s all about the 'Real Return.' With inflation at 15.05% and the 364-day bill at 16.99%, we are finally seeing a positive return, but as @igwe emmanuel noted, it has to stay above inflation to be truly 'worth it.' Thanks for the deep dive, everyone!
 
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Little Princess said:
I love the analogy, @Blessed Amara! Thinking of NTBs as a 'government savings account' makes it so much easier for beginners to grasp. And @Mr.Simon, you hit on a vital point—the 'shift to equity' happens exactly when these fixed-income yields start to compress. It’s all about the 'Real Return.' With inflation at 15.05% and the 364-day bill at 16.99%, we are finally seeing a positive return, but as @igwe emmanuel noted, it has to stay above inflation to be truly 'worth it.' Thanks for the deep dive, everyone!
Click to expand...
Good analogy. Seeing NTBs like a government savings account makes it easy to understand. And once yields drop, many investors usually move back to equities.
 
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Olori Uwem said:
Investors Pull Back as Treasury Bill Subscriptions Fall to ₦6.13 Trillion

Investor appetite for Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) weakened at the start of 2026 as falling yields reduced the attractiveness of the short-term government securities.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that total subscription to NTBs dropped significantly in the first two months of the year despite continued investor participation in government debt instruments.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments.

1️⃣ NTB Subscriptions Drop Sharply

Total investor subscription to Treasury Bills between January and February 2026 stood at ₦6.13 trillion.

This represents a 37% decline compared with the ₦9.68 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.

The drop signals that some investors are becoming less enthusiastic about Treasury Bills, largely because yields have started to fall.

2️⃣ January Recorded the Bulk of Investor Demand

In January 2026, investors subscribed about ₦4.69 trillion worth of NTBs.

This was a significant jump compared with the ₦1.54 trillion recorded in February 2025, reflecting strong demand early in the year as investors tried to lock in attractive yields before they declined further.

3️⃣ Government Offered More Bills but Raised Less Money

Interestingly, the government increased the amount of Treasury Bills offered to investors.

During the first two months of 2026:

• About ₦2.3 trillion worth of NTBs were offered to investors
• This represents a 51.8% increase compared with the ₦1.52 trillion offered during the same period in 2025

However, the CBN eventually allotted about ₦2.1 trillion, which is 23% lower than the ₦2.72 trillion raised during the same period last year.

This shows that despite strong subscription figures, actual borrowings from the market declined.

4️⃣ Treasury Bill Yields Have Declined

One of the main reasons for the drop in investor enthusiasm is the decline in Treasury Bill yields.

Recent auction results show:

• 364-Day NTB yield dropped to about 16.99% from 18.43% last year
• 182-Day NTB yield fell to about 16.65% from 18%
• 91-Day NTB yield declined to about 15.84% from 17%

Lower yields reduce the income investors earn, making the instrument slightly less attractive compared with when rates were higher.

5️⃣ CBN Is Intentionally Reducing Yields

The drop in yields is partly due to policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The apex bank has been scaling back the high discount rates previously offered on Treasury Bills because:

• Investor demand remains strong
• Inflation has started to decline
• Monetary policy is being adjusted gradually

This strategy helps the CBN manage liquidity in the financial system and support economic stability.

6️⃣ Inflation Is Beginning to Decline

Nigeria’s inflation rate has shown signs of easing.

As of January 2026, inflation stood at about 15.05%, representing a gradual decline compared with previous months.

Lower inflation typically leads to lower interest rates over time, which partly explains the declining Treasury Bill yields.

7️⃣ Investors Prefer Long-Term Treasury Bills

Despite the overall decline in subscriptions, longer-tenor Treasury Bills remain the most popular among investors.

Out of the ₦6.13 trillion total subscription, about ₦5.8 trillion went into longer-maturity instruments, particularly the 364-day Treasury Bills.

This suggests that investors are trying to lock in current yields for a longer period before rates fall further.

8️⃣ Interest Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) slightly to 26.50%.

The rate cut reflects:

• slowing inflation
• improving foreign exchange stability
• efforts to support economic growth

However, analysts say the reduction may not immediately cause a major drop in fixed-income yields.

9️⃣ Analysts Expect Yields to Decline Slowly

According to analysts at Cordros Research, yields in the fixed-income market may decline gradually rather than sharply.

Several factors will continue to influence the market, including:

• Government borrowing needs
• Liquidity conditions in the banking system
• The pace of inflation decline
• Future monetary policy decisions

What This Means for Investors

The current situation suggests that:

• Treasury Bills are still safe investments backed by the government
• However, returns are gradually declining
• Investors may increasingly seek longer-tenor instruments to preserve yield levels

For fixed-income investors, the market is entering a phase where yield compression may become a key theme in 2026.
Click to expand...
This is not surprising at all. What we are seeing is a normal shift in the interest rate cycle.

When yields were around 18–20%, Treasury Bills naturally attracted a lot of short-term capital because investors could earn strong returns with almost zero credit risk. But as inflation begins to ease and the monetary authorities gradually adjust policy, yields tend to compress, and that reduces the excitement around these instruments.

For investors, the key lesson here is that Treasury Bills were never meant to be the engine of wealth creation. They are primarily a capital preservation and liquidity management tool.

An investor usually views Treasury Bills in three ways:

1. Capital Protection: They help protect a portion of your portfolio from market volatility.

2. Liquidity Buffer: They provide cash that can be deployed when better opportunities arise.

3. Short-Term Parking Space: A place to hold funds while waiting for more attractive assets.

What is happening now is simply that the reward for safety is becoming smaller, which naturally pushes investors to start looking elsewhere for returns such as equities, real estate, or other income-producing assets.

However, this doesn’t mean Treasury Bills should be ignored. In fact, in an environment where yields may decline further, locking in longer-tenor instruments like the 364-day bills can still be a sensible defensive strategy for part of a portfolio.

The mistake many investors make is moving 100% from safety to risk simply because yields are falling. A more disciplined approach is to maintain balance:

• Keep a good portion (a survival structure) in safe instruments like Treasury Bills for stability.

• Allocate growth capital to assets that can outperform inflation over time.


The conversation should not be “Treasury Bills vs other investments.” It should be about how each asset class plays a role in a well-structured portfolio.

Markets will always rotate. The intelligent investor simply adjusts positioning without abandoning the principles of failure rate diversification and risk management.
 
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Benjamin E Housel said:
This is not surprising at all. What we are seeing is a normal shift in the interest rate cycle.

When yields were around 18–20%, Treasury Bills naturally attracted a lot of short-term capital because investors could earn strong returns with almost zero credit risk. But as inflation begins to ease and the monetary authorities gradually adjust policy, yields tend to compress, and that reduces the excitement around these instruments.

For investors, the key lesson here is that Treasury Bills were never meant to be the engine of wealth creation. They are primarily a capital preservation and liquidity management tool.

An investor usually views Treasury Bills in three ways:

1. Capital Protection: They help protect a portion of your portfolio from market volatility.

2. Liquidity Buffer: They provide cash that can be deployed when better opportunities arise.

3. Short-Term Parking Space: A place to hold funds while waiting for more attractive assets.

What is happening now is simply that the reward for safety is becoming smaller, which naturally pushes investors to start looking elsewhere for returns such as equities, real estate, or other income-producing assets.

However, this doesn’t mean Treasury Bills should be ignored. In fact, in an environment where yields may decline further, locking in longer-tenor instruments like the 364-day bills can still be a sensible defensive strategy for part of a portfolio.

The mistake many investors make is moving 100% from safety to risk simply because yields are falling. A more disciplined approach is to maintain balance:

• Keep a good portion (a survival structure) in safe instruments like Treasury Bills for stability.

• Allocate growth capital to assets that can outperform inflation over time.


The conversation should not be “Treasury Bills vs other investments.” It should be about how each asset class plays a role in a well-structured portfolio.

Markets will always rotate. The intelligent investor simply adjusts positioning without abandoning the principles of failure rate diversification and risk management.
Click to expand...
Very detailed and eye opening. Thanks for throwing in your weight.
 
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Olori Uwem said:
Investors Pull Back as Treasury Bill Subscriptions Fall to ₦6.13 Trillion

Investor appetite for Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) weakened at the start of 2026 as falling yields reduced the attractiveness of the short-term government securities.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that total subscription to NTBs dropped significantly in the first two months of the year despite continued investor participation in government debt instruments.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments.

1️⃣ NTB Subscriptions Drop Sharply

Total investor subscription to Treasury Bills between January and February 2026 stood at ₦6.13 trillion.

This represents a 37% decline compared with the ₦9.68 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.

The drop signals that some investors are becoming less enthusiastic about Treasury Bills, largely because yields have started to fall.

2️⃣ January Recorded the Bulk of Investor Demand

In January 2026, investors subscribed about ₦4.69 trillion worth of NTBs.

This was a significant jump compared with the ₦1.54 trillion recorded in February 2025, reflecting strong demand early in the year as investors tried to lock in attractive yields before they declined further.

3️⃣ Government Offered More Bills but Raised Less Money

Interestingly, the government increased the amount of Treasury Bills offered to investors.

During the first two months of 2026:

• About ₦2.3 trillion worth of NTBs were offered to investors
• This represents a 51.8% increase compared with the ₦1.52 trillion offered during the same period in 2025

However, the CBN eventually allotted about ₦2.1 trillion, which is 23% lower than the ₦2.72 trillion raised during the same period last year.

This shows that despite strong subscription figures, actual borrowings from the market declined.

4️⃣ Treasury Bill Yields Have Declined

One of the main reasons for the drop in investor enthusiasm is the decline in Treasury Bill yields.

Recent auction results show:

• 364-Day NTB yield dropped to about 16.99% from 18.43% last year
• 182-Day NTB yield fell to about 16.65% from 18%
• 91-Day NTB yield declined to about 15.84% from 17%

Lower yields reduce the income investors earn, making the instrument slightly less attractive compared with when rates were higher.

5️⃣ CBN Is Intentionally Reducing Yields

The drop in yields is partly due to policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The apex bank has been scaling back the high discount rates previously offered on Treasury Bills because:

• Investor demand remains strong
• Inflation has started to decline
• Monetary policy is being adjusted gradually

This strategy helps the CBN manage liquidity in the financial system and support economic stability.

6️⃣ Inflation Is Beginning to Decline

Nigeria’s inflation rate has shown signs of easing.

As of January 2026, inflation stood at about 15.05%, representing a gradual decline compared with previous months.

Lower inflation typically leads to lower interest rates over time, which partly explains the declining Treasury Bill yields.

7️⃣ Investors Prefer Long-Term Treasury Bills

Despite the overall decline in subscriptions, longer-tenor Treasury Bills remain the most popular among investors.

Out of the ₦6.13 trillion total subscription, about ₦5.8 trillion went into longer-maturity instruments, particularly the 364-day Treasury Bills.

This suggests that investors are trying to lock in current yields for a longer period before rates fall further.

8️⃣ Interest Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) slightly to 26.50%.

The rate cut reflects:

• slowing inflation
• improving foreign exchange stability
• efforts to support economic growth

However, analysts say the reduction may not immediately cause a major drop in fixed-income yields.

9️⃣ Analysts Expect Yields to Decline Slowly

According to analysts at Cordros Research, yields in the fixed-income market may decline gradually rather than sharply.

Several factors will continue to influence the market, including:

• Government borrowing needs
• Liquidity conditions in the banking system
• The pace of inflation decline
• Future monetary policy decisions

What This Means for Investors

The current situation suggests that:

• Treasury Bills are still safe investments backed by the government
• However, returns are gradually declining
• Investors may increasingly seek longer-tenor instruments to preserve yield levels

For fixed-income investors, the market is entering a phase where yield compression may become a key theme in 2026.
Click to expand...
Investor interest in Nigerian Treasury Bills is slowing down as yields drop. Total subscriptions fell to ₦6.13 trillion in Jan–Feb 2026, down 37% from last year. Most investors are sticking to longer-term bills to lock in returns, while the CBN gradually reduces rates amid falling inflation and stable liquidity.
 
igwe emmanuel said:
Investor interest in Nigerian Treasury Bills seems to be slowing, with subscriptions down to ₦6.13 trillion as yields dip.
People are still going for the longer-term bills, but with returns tightening, many are starting to rethink their fixed-income strategies.
Click to expand...
You're right, cause I invested some of my money in the treasury bill, with this news, I'm thinking of going all in equity
 
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Vicole said:
You're right, cause I invested some of my money in the treasury bill, with this news, I'm thinking of going all in equity
Click to expand...
Smiles... Quick question, I hope you have set aside at least 6-12 months of emergency funds before going all-in on equities?
 
Little Princess said:
I love the analogy, @Blessed Amara! Thinking of NTBs as a 'government savings account' makes it so much easier for beginners to grasp. And @Mr.Simon, you hit on a vital point—the 'shift to equity' happens exactly when these fixed-income yields start to compress. It’s all about the 'Real Return.' With inflation at 15.05% and the 364-day bill at 16.99%, we are finally seeing a positive return, but as @igwe emmanuel noted, it has to stay above inflation to be truly 'worth it.' Thanks for the deep dive, everyone!
Click to expand...
True. Thinking of NTBs as a “government savings account” really clicks. Feels good seeing a positive return, but the real win is keeping it above inflation so your money actually grows.
 
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