Afrinvest Flags Nigeria’s Rocky Road to $1 Trillion Economy by 2031
Afrinvest West Africa has raised concerns that Nigeria is still far from a clear path to achieving President Tinubu’s ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
Key Findings from Afrinvest’s 20th Banking Sector Report:
• GDP Erosion: Despite reforms on paper, Nigeria’s GDP ($478bn in 2022) has been nearly halved by external shocks and self-inflicted disruptions .
• Institutional Weaknesses: Issues like insecurity in farming communities , oil theft ⛽, fiscal opacity , and public sector extravagance continue to derail growth.
• Comparative Example: Argentina , once in a similar crisis, turned around in under 2 years under President Javier Milei →
• GDP growth: +5.8%
• Per capita GDP: $14,360
• Inflation: down from 127% → 56% ⬇️
Contrast with Nigeria’s -4.7% growth, $835 per capita GDP, and stagnant inflation control.
Path to $1 Trillion:
• Nigeria would need 21.95% annual GDP growth plus a stable exchange rate of ₦1,500/$.
• Afrinvest argues this is only possible through ACT-BOLD reforms:
✅ Decisive governance
✅ Transparency & accountability
✅ Institutional discipline
✅ Focus on 7 high-impact sectors
Banking Sector Insights:
• Banks have raised ₦2.5 trillion in new capital to meet recapitalisation requirements.
• Access, Zenith, Ecobank, and Lotus have already crossed the line ahead of the June 2026 deadline.
• The financial services sector grew 15% in Q1 2025, making it a top 10 GDP contributor.
Monetary Policy Moves:
• Under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, interest rates rose 875 basis points → 27.5% (Feb–Nov 2024).
• Aim: Tame inflation, strengthen the naira , and restore investor confidence .
Afrinvest’s Verdict:
“Nigeria has the ambition but lacks execution. Without bold reforms and institutional discipline, the $1trn economy goal will remain a dream deferred.”
Afrinvest West Africa has raised concerns that Nigeria is still far from a clear path to achieving President Tinubu’s ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
Key Findings from Afrinvest’s 20th Banking Sector Report:
• GDP Erosion: Despite reforms on paper, Nigeria’s GDP ($478bn in 2022) has been nearly halved by external shocks and self-inflicted disruptions .
• Institutional Weaknesses: Issues like insecurity in farming communities , oil theft ⛽, fiscal opacity , and public sector extravagance continue to derail growth.
• Comparative Example: Argentina , once in a similar crisis, turned around in under 2 years under President Javier Milei →
• GDP growth: +5.8%
• Per capita GDP: $14,360
• Inflation: down from 127% → 56% ⬇️
Contrast with Nigeria’s -4.7% growth, $835 per capita GDP, and stagnant inflation control.
Path to $1 Trillion:
• Nigeria would need 21.95% annual GDP growth plus a stable exchange rate of ₦1,500/$.
• Afrinvest argues this is only possible through ACT-BOLD reforms:
✅ Decisive governance
✅ Transparency & accountability
✅ Institutional discipline
✅ Focus on 7 high-impact sectors
Banking Sector Insights:
• Banks have raised ₦2.5 trillion in new capital to meet recapitalisation requirements.
• Access, Zenith, Ecobank, and Lotus have already crossed the line ahead of the June 2026 deadline.
• The financial services sector grew 15% in Q1 2025, making it a top 10 GDP contributor.
Monetary Policy Moves:
• Under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, interest rates rose 875 basis points → 27.5% (Feb–Nov 2024).
• Aim: Tame inflation, strengthen the naira , and restore investor confidence .
Afrinvest’s Verdict:
“Nigeria has the ambition but lacks execution. Without bold reforms and institutional discipline, the $1trn economy goal will remain a dream deferred.”