Cardoso flags Middle East war as risk to inflation, rate cut

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DinoOmoAle

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Feb 28, 2023
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Nigeria’s central bank governor said the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could influence future interest-rate decisions, warning that higher oil prices may fuel inflation even as they bolster export earnings.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Governor Olayemi Cardoso said geopolitical shocks would most likely be transmitted to Nigeria through energy prices and global financial conditions, two variables closely watched by policymakers as they assess the next move on borrowing costs ahead of a crucial meeting in May.

“Higher oil prices can support export earnings and strengthen the balance of payments, but they can also feed into domestic inflation through fuel, transport, and imported goods,” Cardoso said, highlighting the trade-offs facing Africa’s largest oil producer.
 
Olayemi-Cardoso.png


Nigeria’s central bank governor said the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could influence future interest-rate decisions, warning that higher oil prices may fuel inflation even as they bolster export earnings.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Governor Olayemi Cardoso said geopolitical shocks would most likely be transmitted to Nigeria through energy prices and global financial conditions, two variables closely watched by policymakers as they assess the next move on borrowing costs ahead of a crucial meeting in May.

“Higher oil prices can support export earnings and strengthen the balance of payments, but they can also feed into domestic inflation through fuel, transport, and imported goods,” Cardoso said, highlighting the trade-offs facing Africa’s largest oil producer.
True. Higher oil prices may boost FX earnings, but they also push up inflation through fuel and transport. The CBN has to balance both before making any rate decision.