Champions League Coefficient: Why Premier League Clubs Need West Ham To Defeat Freiburg

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May 8, 2023
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Next season, the UEFA Champions League will be undergoing a format change, expanding from 32 teams to 36.

Two additional spots in the competition will be awarded to leagues based on their performances in Europe this season, determined by coefficient rankings.

Meanwhile, Premier League clubs are aiming to increase their chances of qualifying for the tournament.

Currently, the Premier League is trailing behind Serie A and the Bundesliga in the race for an extra spot.

This means that English top-flight teams will closely monitor the Europa League last 16 clash between West Ham and Freiburg on Thursday, March 14 as the game is essentially a straight UEFA coefficient shootout.

If West Ham wins, the Premier League’s coefficient ranking will be strengthened and the German Bundesliga’s ranking will weaken.

Not only West Ham's season hangs on the outcome, but also domestic rivals Tottenham, Aston Villa, Brighton, Wolves, Newcastle, and Chelsea are keeping a close eye.

The result could be crucial in determining which country secures one of Uefa's new European performance spots and an additional place in Europe.



However, David Moyes' side will need to give their best as they are one goal down against Freiburg from the first leg.

Below, we delve into the Premier League's current likelihood of sending five teams to the Champions League next season.

How is the Champions League format changing?​


Since the 2003-04 season, the group phase of the competition has consisted of eight groups, each with four clubs. Every team plays the other three in their group both at home and away, with the top two progressing to the knockout phase.

In the upcoming year, there will be 36 clubs participating in a 'Swiss' format. Each team will play eight matches against eight different opponents, with four at home and four away.

The top eight clubs from the group stage will directly enter the last 16 of the competition. Teams placed ninth to 24th will compete in two-leg play-offs, with the winners advancing to the next round.

How are the extra places decided?​


Due to its expansion, the Champions League now has four new spots to be filled. The top-performing leagues in Europe this season will receive two of these additional places, with Germany, Italy, Spain, and England being the most likely beneficiaries.

As a result, the team finishing fifth in the Premier League could secure automatic qualification for the Champions League. Uefa's association coefficient rankings, which are determined by the performance of European clubs in Uefa competitions, will determine which two leagues earn the extra spots.

In this ranking system, each victory by a club from a particular nation earns two points, while a draw earns one point.

Teams earn bonus points as they progress through different stages of each competition, with more weight given to success in the Champions League, followed by the Europa League and then the Europa Conference League.

The points earned by clubs from each country are totaled and then divided by the number of teams representing that nation in Europe, which is eight for the Premier League.

In addition, one spot will be given to the third-placed team in the domestic league of the country ranked fifth in the Uefa coefficient, which currently France.

The remaining extra spot will be allocated to the qualifying path for the Champions League.

Previously, four teams advanced through this route to the group phase, but starting next season, it will be five teams.

How does the ranking stand at the moment?​


At the beginning of this week's European fixtures, Italy and Germany held the top two positions, with England in third.

Despite Arsenal's victory over Porto in the Champions League, England is now in a slightly worse position than on Monday. This is because Borussia Dortmund also secured a win against PSV, and Germany now has seven points compared to England's eight.

Mikel Arteta's team earned three performance points, with two for the win and one for advancing. This is then divided by eight, representing the number of English teams in European competitions this season, and added to the overall total.

With Italy's strong standing and four of their teams progressing with commanding leads in the last-16 rounds of the Europa League and Europa Conference League, it is unlikely that Serie A will not secure a European performance slot.

However, the competition between England and Germany is more intense as three out of seven Bundesliga teams have been eliminated and cannot earn any more points. Brighton, currently trailing 4-0 against Roma, would need a major turnaround to improve this situation.

On the positive side, Arsenal and Manchester City have already secured spots in the Champions League quarter-finals, with Liverpool close to doing so in the Europa League and Aston Villa expected to advance in the Europa Conference League.

This means England is likely to have at least four teams in the next round, while Germany is expected to have at least three teams advancing.

This leads us to the upcoming match between West Ham and Freiburg.

If West Ham United defeat Freiburg, they would secure three points like Arsenal. However, if Freiburg advance, the German side could earn an additional one to three points on top of the two points they already have for winning the first leg.

In terms of coefficients, this could result in a swing of nearly a point. The gap between England and Germany at the beginning of the week stood at 0.875. The outcome remains uncertain, but the winning team will significantly bolster their country's position.

What an extra Champions League spot would mean for Premier League clubs​


The introduction of a European performance spot in the Premier League would have a cascading effect on the league standings.

This spot would be allocated to the team finishing fifth in the table, which currently would be Tottenham.

Additionally, it would also impact the distribution of Europa League and Europa Conference League places. The Europa League spots would be given to the FA Cup winners if they had not already qualified for the Champions League, as well as the sixth-placed team in the Premier League.

The Europa Conference League qualifiers would be the seventh or eighth-placed team in the Premier League, depending on the outcomes of the other competitions. Overall, the introduction of this European performance spot would have far-reaching consequences for the teams in the league.

Aston Villa would also qualify for the Europa League if they were to win the Europa Conference League. However, their spot would not be given to another team if they had already secured a Europa League place through their league position.

There is a slim possibility that England could have 11 teams in European competition in the upcoming season, including the usual seven spots, an extra Champions League place, and the winners of all three European competitions if they finished outside a European position.

By securing a European performance spot, the competition for fifth and eighth place would become more significant.

The clash between Premier League club West Ham and German side Freiburg is indeed a crucial one.

The match will take place today, Thursday, March 14 at London Stadium with kick-off set at 6:45 pm.