Market Performance
The Nigerian equities market closed weaker today, with the All-Share Index (ASI) retreating by 0.49% to settle at 141,248.76 points. Despite the decline, the year-to-date return remains strong at 36.23%, underscoring the impressive gains achieved earlier in the year.
Market breadth was very weak, coming in at 0.48x, as only 22 stocks advanced compared to 46 decliners. This signals broad-based selling pressure. However, activity levels surged — turnover jumped by 37.8% to ₦23.05 billion, while the total trading volume increased by 32% to 820.02 million shares. This reflects heavy participation, but with more sellers than buyers, a pattern often described as a “distribution day.”
Key Market Trends
• Market Breadth: Weak at 0.48x, pointing to pervasive caution. Historically, such weakness has often preceded further index pressure.
• Turnover Surge: A notable increase in traded value, with institutional investors responsible for 93.6% of market value traded, showing that large, informed players dominated the session.
• Volume Jump: Despite higher volumes, the skewed advance-to-decline ratio confirms that sellers controlled the day.
Top Performing Stocks
• SCOA Nigeria Plc led the gainers with a 10% rise, although technical indicators flagged an “extreme overbought” condition with an RSI of 87.2. The stock has already gained over 193% this year, so while bullish momentum is strong, caution is advised as profit-taking could soon set in.
• RT Briscoe also surged, climbing 9.8%, rebounding from oversold levels. This could signal the start of a momentum reversal.
• NEM Insurance advanced 7.96%, reinforcing its position as one of the year’s standout performers, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy dividend yield of over 6%.
• Other gainers included NGX Group and NEWGOLD ETF, the latter benefiting from its status as an inflation hedge.
Biggest Losers
• The sharpest fall came from the Vetiva S&P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF (VSPBONDETF), which lost nearly 15% in one day, dragging it to ₦211.08.
• Lotus Halal Equity ETF declined by almost 10%, closing at ₦69.71.
• INTENEGINS and OMATEK also posted steep drops of -9.6% and -9% respectively, both continuing their downtrend as some of the market’s worst YTD performers.
⚡ Unusual Volume Alerts & Momentum Shifts
• CHAMPION Breweries was a standout, trading at volumes more than 20 times its average (up 2015%), but the stock still declined by over 4%. This mix of negative price action with unusually high volume suggests institutional repositioning — a classic contrarian setup. If the selling pressure fades, a reversal could follow.
• GTCO recorded a 311% increase in trading volume, slipping just 3.1%. Such patterns often indicate institutional accumulation despite apparent weakness.
• SterlingNG also saw a 278% surge in volume, although prices remained neutral, signaling possible positioning for a future breakout.
Sector Highlights
• Insurance was mixed. NEM Insurance posted strong gains, but Guinea Insurance, IntEnEgIns, and Mutual Benefits slumped heavily. This divergence highlights momentum rotation within the sector.
• Banking stocks mirrored the market’s negative close. Heavy block trades were seen in GTCO, AccessCorp, UBA, and Zenith, but most still ended the day lower — a sign institutions may be rotating positions rather than exiting completely.
• Consumer goods names were volatile. SCOA rallied to fresh highs, but Champion Breweries and Dangote Sugar slipped sharply, with both breaking below near-term support.
• Financial ETFs showed extreme divergence — while NEWGOLD ETF climbed nearly 7%, other exchange-traded funds like VSPBONDETF and VETINDETF dropped by double digits.
Contrarian & Technical Signals
• CHAMPION Breweries remains a key watch. The combination of neutral RSI, bullish MACD, and massive volume could mean big players are quietly accumulating ahead of a rebound.
• SCOA Nigeria is in a danger zone. While it continues to post record gains, its extremely high RSI suggests a correction may not be far off.
• GTCO looks to be under institutional watch. The price decline was modest compared to its huge trading volumes, suggesting accumulation beneath the surface.
• Serial laggards like Omatek and IntEnEgIns remain high-risk plays. Their persistent weakness makes them suitable only for tactical traders looking for exhaustion bounces.
Investor Activity – Retail vs Institutional
Institutions dominated today, accounting for 82% of traded volume and an overwhelming 93.6% of market value. Although retail investors carried out most of the trade count, their influence on price action was limited. Both institutions and retail concentrated heavily on blue-chip stocks like GTCO, AccessCorp, Zenith Bank, MTNN, and UBA, reinforcing the trend of herd behavior around large-cap names.
✅ Summary & Outlook
The NGX ended weaker despite higher turnover and volumes, underscoring the fact that institutional investors were active — but largely on the sell side or rotating into select names. Breadth was poor, signaling broad-based weakness.
• Winners to watch: NEM and NEWGOLD ETF remain attractive for momentum traders, while SCOA continues to shine but looks dangerously overbought.
• Contrarian plays: CHAMPION and GTCO may present opportunities if their unusual volumes point to accumulation.
• Risk signals: Persistent weakness in Omatek, IntEnEgIns, and Guinea Insurance suggests avoiding falling knives unless there’s strong reversal evidence.
Defensive stocks with solid yields and low volatility, such as NEM, stand out as safe havens in this choppy market.
The Nigerian equities market closed weaker today, with the All-Share Index (ASI) retreating by 0.49% to settle at 141,248.76 points. Despite the decline, the year-to-date return remains strong at 36.23%, underscoring the impressive gains achieved earlier in the year.
Market breadth was very weak, coming in at 0.48x, as only 22 stocks advanced compared to 46 decliners. This signals broad-based selling pressure. However, activity levels surged — turnover jumped by 37.8% to ₦23.05 billion, while the total trading volume increased by 32% to 820.02 million shares. This reflects heavy participation, but with more sellers than buyers, a pattern often described as a “distribution day.”
Key Market Trends
• Market Breadth: Weak at 0.48x, pointing to pervasive caution. Historically, such weakness has often preceded further index pressure.
• Turnover Surge: A notable increase in traded value, with institutional investors responsible for 93.6% of market value traded, showing that large, informed players dominated the session.
• Volume Jump: Despite higher volumes, the skewed advance-to-decline ratio confirms that sellers controlled the day.
Top Performing Stocks
• SCOA Nigeria Plc led the gainers with a 10% rise, although technical indicators flagged an “extreme overbought” condition with an RSI of 87.2. The stock has already gained over 193% this year, so while bullish momentum is strong, caution is advised as profit-taking could soon set in.
• RT Briscoe also surged, climbing 9.8%, rebounding from oversold levels. This could signal the start of a momentum reversal.
• NEM Insurance advanced 7.96%, reinforcing its position as one of the year’s standout performers, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy dividend yield of over 6%.
• Other gainers included NGX Group and NEWGOLD ETF, the latter benefiting from its status as an inflation hedge.
Biggest Losers
• The sharpest fall came from the Vetiva S&P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF (VSPBONDETF), which lost nearly 15% in one day, dragging it to ₦211.08.
• Lotus Halal Equity ETF declined by almost 10%, closing at ₦69.71.
• INTENEGINS and OMATEK also posted steep drops of -9.6% and -9% respectively, both continuing their downtrend as some of the market’s worst YTD performers.
⚡ Unusual Volume Alerts & Momentum Shifts
• CHAMPION Breweries was a standout, trading at volumes more than 20 times its average (up 2015%), but the stock still declined by over 4%. This mix of negative price action with unusually high volume suggests institutional repositioning — a classic contrarian setup. If the selling pressure fades, a reversal could follow.
• GTCO recorded a 311% increase in trading volume, slipping just 3.1%. Such patterns often indicate institutional accumulation despite apparent weakness.
• SterlingNG also saw a 278% surge in volume, although prices remained neutral, signaling possible positioning for a future breakout.
Sector Highlights
• Insurance was mixed. NEM Insurance posted strong gains, but Guinea Insurance, IntEnEgIns, and Mutual Benefits slumped heavily. This divergence highlights momentum rotation within the sector.
• Banking stocks mirrored the market’s negative close. Heavy block trades were seen in GTCO, AccessCorp, UBA, and Zenith, but most still ended the day lower — a sign institutions may be rotating positions rather than exiting completely.
• Consumer goods names were volatile. SCOA rallied to fresh highs, but Champion Breweries and Dangote Sugar slipped sharply, with both breaking below near-term support.
• Financial ETFs showed extreme divergence — while NEWGOLD ETF climbed nearly 7%, other exchange-traded funds like VSPBONDETF and VETINDETF dropped by double digits.
Contrarian & Technical Signals
• CHAMPION Breweries remains a key watch. The combination of neutral RSI, bullish MACD, and massive volume could mean big players are quietly accumulating ahead of a rebound.
• SCOA Nigeria is in a danger zone. While it continues to post record gains, its extremely high RSI suggests a correction may not be far off.
• GTCO looks to be under institutional watch. The price decline was modest compared to its huge trading volumes, suggesting accumulation beneath the surface.
• Serial laggards like Omatek and IntEnEgIns remain high-risk plays. Their persistent weakness makes them suitable only for tactical traders looking for exhaustion bounces.
Investor Activity – Retail vs Institutional
Institutions dominated today, accounting for 82% of traded volume and an overwhelming 93.6% of market value. Although retail investors carried out most of the trade count, their influence on price action was limited. Both institutions and retail concentrated heavily on blue-chip stocks like GTCO, AccessCorp, Zenith Bank, MTNN, and UBA, reinforcing the trend of herd behavior around large-cap names.
✅ Summary & Outlook
The NGX ended weaker despite higher turnover and volumes, underscoring the fact that institutional investors were active — but largely on the sell side or rotating into select names. Breadth was poor, signaling broad-based weakness.
• Winners to watch: NEM and NEWGOLD ETF remain attractive for momentum traders, while SCOA continues to shine but looks dangerously overbought.
• Contrarian plays: CHAMPION and GTCO may present opportunities if their unusual volumes point to accumulation.
• Risk signals: Persistent weakness in Omatek, IntEnEgIns, and Guinea Insurance suggests avoiding falling knives unless there’s strong reversal evidence.
Defensive stocks with solid yields and low volatility, such as NEM, stand out as safe havens in this choppy market.