Markets in a Holding Pattern as Conflicting Data Clouds Outlook
U.S. stocks ended the week largely flat, as investors struggled to interpret mixed and somewhat distorted economic data, with no strong catalyst to push markets decisively higher or lower.
Market Performance at a Glance
• The Morningstar US Market Index edged up 0.06%, reflecting a week of indecision.
• Consumer Cyclicals (+0.92%) and Healthcare (+0.45%) led sector gains.
• Energy (-3.04%) and Real Estate (-1.11%) were the worst performers.
• Large-cap stocks gained 0.19%, while mid-caps fell (-0.44%) and small-caps were flat (+0.02%).
• Growth stocks (+0.6%) outperformed, while value (-0.52%) and blend (-0.58%) stocks declined.
• The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.48% .
Out of 836 U.S.-listed stocks, only 44% advanced, while 56% declined, showing weak overall market breadth.
Economy: Mixed Signals, Muted Market Reaction
Two major economic reports failed to move markets meaningfully:
• November jobs data revealed weakening labor conditions, with downward revisions to previous job gains and a third straight rise in unemployment to 4.6%.
• November inflation (CPI) came in below expectations, suggesting easing price pressures.
However, investors largely discounted the CPI data, citing distortions caused by the ongoing government shutdown. As a result, markets remained cautious and unconvinced.
Bottom line: The data wasn’t strong—or clear—enough to change expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
️ Holiday Calm Takes Over
With Christmas approaching and the year winding down, trading activity slowed noticeably. Many investors appear to be stepping back, contributing to the market’s sideways movement.
Bonds & Commodities Snapshot
• 10-year Treasury yield: Fell to 4.16%
• 2-year Treasury yield: Dropped to 3.48%
• Crude oil: Slid 1.74% to $56.53/barrel ️
• Gold: Rose 1.19% to $4,354/oz ✨
Top Stock Gainers
• Rivian (+21.7%) stole the spotlight, extending its strong recent momentum.
• Carnival (+21.3%), SanDisk (+15.2%), Moderna (+14.9%), and BioMarin (+14.8%) also posted solid weekly gains.
Top Stock Losers
• Lamb Weston (-26.4%) led the declines.
• Generac (-13.6%), Nike (-13.0%), ARM (-12.9%), and Advance Auto Parts (-12.9%) rounded out the laggards.
️ What to Watch Next Week
A shortened holiday trading week brings key data:
• Durable Goods Orders
• Q3 GDP
• Industrial Production
• Consumer Confidence
• Markets close early on Christmas Eve and remain closed on Christmas Day.
Big Picture Takeaway
Markets are stuck in wait-and-see mode. With unclear economic signals, no fresh Fed direction, and year-end distractions, investors are choosing patience over conviction — at least for now.
U.S. stocks ended the week largely flat, as investors struggled to interpret mixed and somewhat distorted economic data, with no strong catalyst to push markets decisively higher or lower.
Market Performance at a Glance
• The Morningstar US Market Index edged up 0.06%, reflecting a week of indecision.
• Consumer Cyclicals (+0.92%) and Healthcare (+0.45%) led sector gains.
• Energy (-3.04%) and Real Estate (-1.11%) were the worst performers.
• Large-cap stocks gained 0.19%, while mid-caps fell (-0.44%) and small-caps were flat (+0.02%).
• Growth stocks (+0.6%) outperformed, while value (-0.52%) and blend (-0.58%) stocks declined.
• The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.48% .
Out of 836 U.S.-listed stocks, only 44% advanced, while 56% declined, showing weak overall market breadth.
Economy: Mixed Signals, Muted Market Reaction
Two major economic reports failed to move markets meaningfully:
• November jobs data revealed weakening labor conditions, with downward revisions to previous job gains and a third straight rise in unemployment to 4.6%.
• November inflation (CPI) came in below expectations, suggesting easing price pressures.
However, investors largely discounted the CPI data, citing distortions caused by the ongoing government shutdown. As a result, markets remained cautious and unconvinced.
Bottom line: The data wasn’t strong—or clear—enough to change expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
️ Holiday Calm Takes Over
With Christmas approaching and the year winding down, trading activity slowed noticeably. Many investors appear to be stepping back, contributing to the market’s sideways movement.
Bonds & Commodities Snapshot
• 10-year Treasury yield: Fell to 4.16%
• 2-year Treasury yield: Dropped to 3.48%
• Crude oil: Slid 1.74% to $56.53/barrel ️
• Gold: Rose 1.19% to $4,354/oz ✨
Top Stock Gainers
• Rivian (+21.7%) stole the spotlight, extending its strong recent momentum.
• Carnival (+21.3%), SanDisk (+15.2%), Moderna (+14.9%), and BioMarin (+14.8%) also posted solid weekly gains.
Top Stock Losers
• Lamb Weston (-26.4%) led the declines.
• Generac (-13.6%), Nike (-13.0%), ARM (-12.9%), and Advance Auto Parts (-12.9%) rounded out the laggards.
️ What to Watch Next Week
A shortened holiday trading week brings key data:
• Durable Goods Orders
• Q3 GDP
• Industrial Production
• Consumer Confidence
• Markets close early on Christmas Eve and remain closed on Christmas Day.
Big Picture Takeaway
Markets are stuck in wait-and-see mode. With unclear economic signals, no fresh Fed direction, and year-end distractions, investors are choosing patience over conviction — at least for now.