NGX Set for Explosive Growth! Rewane Projects Market Cap to Hit ₦262 Trillion by 2026
Nigeria’s stock market may be heading into one of its strongest growth phases ever, according to renowned economist Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company.
Speaking at the 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse in Ikoyi, Rewane forecasted that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could experience massive expansion over the next three years — driven by major listings, stronger corporate earnings, and improved market efficiency.
Here’s a detailed breakdown
Key Forecasts by Bismarck Rewane
1️⃣ NGX Market Capitalisation Projections
Rewane predicts NGX market cap will grow from today’s levels to:
• ₦262 trillion in 2026
• ₦393 trillion in 2027
• ₦590 trillion in 2028
This will represent one of the fastest market-cap expansions in Nigeria’s history.
Today, the market cap stands at ₦91.1 trillion, showing how massive the expected leap is.
What Will Drive This Growth?
Big-Ticket Listings
Rewane identified some major companies that could transform the market:
• Dangote Refinery — valued at ~$32 billion
Its future listing and earnings impact alone could significantly boost market cap.
• NNPC Limited — another giant expected to list
This will bring a huge chunk of Nigeria’s energy sector into the public markets.
Improved Corporate Earnings
Better profitability from listed companies will lift valuations across sectors.
Increased Market Efficiency
As market reforms deepen, capital formation is expected to improve.
Nigeria’s Economic Context
Rewane noted:
• Nigeria’s GDP has been revised to $250 billion
• The national aspiration is $1 trillion GDP by 2030, but he considers this unrealistic under current conditions
• However, key adjustments and reforms can drive stronger economic performance
He emphasized that the stock market remains:
• A major avenue for savings
• A key source of capital for companies
• A reflection of corporate strength and investor sentiment
Monetary Policy & Inflation Outlook
Interest Rates
Rewane explained that interest rates cannot be isolated from inflation and money supply.
• Although the CBN held rates recently, inflation concerns remain dominant
• He expects a gradual decline in interest rates, though not as sharply as Ghana
• Political risk and economic structure differences partly explain divergence with Ghana’s policies
Inflation Projections
• 12.7% in 2026
• 15.3% in 2027 (a temporary rise)
• 13.8% in 2028
Drivers include:
• Food inflation from insecurity
• Fuel price expectations
• Money supply growth
• FX pressures
Exchange Rate Outlook
• Exchange rate projected around ₦1,450–₦1,500/$
• Reserves must be viewed against national debt, with recent reserve increases linked to Eurobond inflow
Key Structural Insights from Rewane
• Nigeria must build an economy that works for its citizens — especially with global labour market shifts
• Remittances remain a major factor, influenced by global wage changes
• Total-factor productivity (TFP) is central to long-term growth
• Even with 4% GDP growth, hitting a $1 trillion economy by 2030 remains unlikely
Other Panel Insights
1. Africa Finance Corporation Chairperson — Ireti Samuel-Ogbu
• Praised macroeconomic gains (FX stability, rising reserves, falling inflation)
• Warned that 61% of Nigerians are multidimensionally poor
• Called for stronger safety nets so reforms don’t leave people behind
2. Parthian CEO, Oluseye Olusoga
• Urged Nigeria to look beyond itself and maximise AfCFTA opportunities
• Emphasised security as the biggest determinant of investment inflows
• Encouraged a collective commitment to economic growth, job creation, and stability
3. Tax Reform Leader, Taiwo Oyedele
Outlined major tax reforms taking effect next year:
• Corporate tax dropping from 30% to 25%
• Small businesses (< ₦100m turnover) pay 0% corporate tax
• 98% of Nigerian workers will see reduced or zero PAYE
• Essential items (food, education, rent, transport) move to 0% VAT
• Bonus shares, share transfers, FX-loss recognition — all now tax-friendly
He noted these reforms are designed to boost:
• Disposable income
• Market stability
• Long-term investment
• Return of foreign investors
️ 4. Parthian Pensions MD — Olufemi Odukoya
• Highlighted PenCom’s new policy raising pension fund allocation to infrastructure from 10% to 21%, including private equity
• This is expected to support large-scale developmental financing
✨ Bottom Line
If Rewane’s projections materialise, the NGX could become one of the fastest-growing stock markets in the world between 2026 and 2028 — fuelled by mega listings, reforms, and improved investor confidence.
Nigeria’s capital market is entering a transformational era.
Nigeria’s stock market may be heading into one of its strongest growth phases ever, according to renowned economist Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company.
Speaking at the 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse in Ikoyi, Rewane forecasted that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could experience massive expansion over the next three years — driven by major listings, stronger corporate earnings, and improved market efficiency.
Here’s a detailed breakdown
Key Forecasts by Bismarck Rewane
1️⃣ NGX Market Capitalisation Projections
Rewane predicts NGX market cap will grow from today’s levels to:
• ₦262 trillion in 2026
• ₦393 trillion in 2027
• ₦590 trillion in 2028
This will represent one of the fastest market-cap expansions in Nigeria’s history.
Today, the market cap stands at ₦91.1 trillion, showing how massive the expected leap is.
What Will Drive This Growth?
Big-Ticket Listings
Rewane identified some major companies that could transform the market:
• Dangote Refinery — valued at ~$32 billion
Its future listing and earnings impact alone could significantly boost market cap.
• NNPC Limited — another giant expected to list
This will bring a huge chunk of Nigeria’s energy sector into the public markets.
Improved Corporate Earnings
Better profitability from listed companies will lift valuations across sectors.
Increased Market Efficiency
As market reforms deepen, capital formation is expected to improve.
Nigeria’s Economic Context
Rewane noted:
• Nigeria’s GDP has been revised to $250 billion
• The national aspiration is $1 trillion GDP by 2030, but he considers this unrealistic under current conditions
• However, key adjustments and reforms can drive stronger economic performance
He emphasized that the stock market remains:
• A major avenue for savings
• A key source of capital for companies
• A reflection of corporate strength and investor sentiment
Monetary Policy & Inflation Outlook
Interest Rates
Rewane explained that interest rates cannot be isolated from inflation and money supply.
• Although the CBN held rates recently, inflation concerns remain dominant
• He expects a gradual decline in interest rates, though not as sharply as Ghana
• Political risk and economic structure differences partly explain divergence with Ghana’s policies
Inflation Projections
• 12.7% in 2026
• 15.3% in 2027 (a temporary rise)
• 13.8% in 2028
Drivers include:
• Food inflation from insecurity
• Fuel price expectations
• Money supply growth
• FX pressures
Exchange Rate Outlook
• Exchange rate projected around ₦1,450–₦1,500/$
• Reserves must be viewed against national debt, with recent reserve increases linked to Eurobond inflow
Key Structural Insights from Rewane
• Nigeria must build an economy that works for its citizens — especially with global labour market shifts
• Remittances remain a major factor, influenced by global wage changes
• Total-factor productivity (TFP) is central to long-term growth
• Even with 4% GDP growth, hitting a $1 trillion economy by 2030 remains unlikely
Other Panel Insights
1. Africa Finance Corporation Chairperson — Ireti Samuel-Ogbu
• Praised macroeconomic gains (FX stability, rising reserves, falling inflation)
• Warned that 61% of Nigerians are multidimensionally poor
• Called for stronger safety nets so reforms don’t leave people behind
2. Parthian CEO, Oluseye Olusoga
• Urged Nigeria to look beyond itself and maximise AfCFTA opportunities
• Emphasised security as the biggest determinant of investment inflows
• Encouraged a collective commitment to economic growth, job creation, and stability
3. Tax Reform Leader, Taiwo Oyedele
Outlined major tax reforms taking effect next year:
• Corporate tax dropping from 30% to 25%
• Small businesses (< ₦100m turnover) pay 0% corporate tax
• 98% of Nigerian workers will see reduced or zero PAYE
• Essential items (food, education, rent, transport) move to 0% VAT
• Bonus shares, share transfers, FX-loss recognition — all now tax-friendly
He noted these reforms are designed to boost:
• Disposable income
• Market stability
• Long-term investment
• Return of foreign investors
️ 4. Parthian Pensions MD — Olufemi Odukoya
• Highlighted PenCom’s new policy raising pension fund allocation to infrastructure from 10% to 21%, including private equity
• This is expected to support large-scale developmental financing
✨ Bottom Line
If Rewane’s projections materialise, the NGX could become one of the fastest-growing stock markets in the world between 2026 and 2028 — fuelled by mega listings, reforms, and improved investor confidence.
Nigeria’s capital market is entering a transformational era.