Nigeria’s $1 Trillion Dream Faces Big Roadblocks — Afrinvest Warns
Nigeria’s ambitious plan to grow its economy to $1 trillion by 2030 may be more of a dream than reality, according to a new warning from investment research firm Afrinvest.
At the BRICS summit in Brazil, President Bola Tinubu boldly declared that the economy will expand fourfold from today’s size of $251 billion to $1 trillion within the next five years, with real GDP growth projected at 7% by 2027.
But Afrinvest says: Not so fast.
The Numbers Behind the Promise
• After a GDP rebasing, Nigeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 stood at ₦372.8 trillion, up 34% from previous figures.
• In real terms, GDP was estimated at ₦217.8 trillion.
• Due to sharp naira depreciation, the dollar equivalent was $251 billion by end-2024 — nearly 50% lower than before Tinubu’s reforms.
• Growth in 2024 hit 3.8% (the 2nd highest since 2014), but still far below the pace needed to hit Tinubu’s lofty goals.
• For Q1 2025, the NBS reported growth of just 3.13%.
Both the IMF and the World Bank expect only 3.4–3.6% growth in 2025, inching up to 3.8% by 2027 — nowhere near 7%.
⚡ Reforms vs. Realities
Since May 2023, Tinubu has rolled out bold reforms:
✅ Fuel subsidy removal
✅ Liberalised FX market
✅ Revenue mobilisation (government income jumped by over 120% in 2024)
✅ Tight monetary policies by the CBN to fight inflation and rebuild credibility
These moves boosted sectors like ICT, finance, and transport.
But… Afrinvest says deep structural problems remain:
• Soaring inflation, especially food inflation, keeps hurting households.
• ⚡ Power sector crisis — liquidity issues, tariff disputes, and unpaid debts.
• ️ Oil output slump — theft, vandalism, and underinvestment keep production below potential.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up
For Nigeria to hit $1 trillion by 2030, Afrinvest notes that:
• Nominal GDP must exceed $800 billion by 2026, requiring at least 40% annual growth in 2025 and 2026 (an almost impossible feat).
• Alternatively, the naira would need to strengthen massively — to around ₦500/$ by 2027.
Afrinvest’s Advice
To stand a real chance, Nigeria must:
• Increase oil production to at least 2 million barrels/day
• Enforce cost-reflective electricity tariffs while shielding the poor with subsidies
• Ensure FX stability
• Implement tax reforms
• Strengthen food security with agricultural protection and safety nets
Bottom Line
Afrinvest praises Tinubu’s courage in pushing reforms, but says the dream of a $1 trillion economy by 2030 “lacks fundamental drivers” unless Nigeria tackles its toughest challenges head-on.
Quick Take: Nigeria has the potential, but without fixing power, oil, inflation, and food security, the trillion-dollar economy may remain just a political slogan.
Nigeria’s ambitious plan to grow its economy to $1 trillion by 2030 may be more of a dream than reality, according to a new warning from investment research firm Afrinvest.
At the BRICS summit in Brazil, President Bola Tinubu boldly declared that the economy will expand fourfold from today’s size of $251 billion to $1 trillion within the next five years, with real GDP growth projected at 7% by 2027.
But Afrinvest says: Not so fast.
The Numbers Behind the Promise
• After a GDP rebasing, Nigeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 stood at ₦372.8 trillion, up 34% from previous figures.
• In real terms, GDP was estimated at ₦217.8 trillion.
• Due to sharp naira depreciation, the dollar equivalent was $251 billion by end-2024 — nearly 50% lower than before Tinubu’s reforms.
• Growth in 2024 hit 3.8% (the 2nd highest since 2014), but still far below the pace needed to hit Tinubu’s lofty goals.
• For Q1 2025, the NBS reported growth of just 3.13%.
Both the IMF and the World Bank expect only 3.4–3.6% growth in 2025, inching up to 3.8% by 2027 — nowhere near 7%.
⚡ Reforms vs. Realities
Since May 2023, Tinubu has rolled out bold reforms:
✅ Fuel subsidy removal
✅ Liberalised FX market
✅ Revenue mobilisation (government income jumped by over 120% in 2024)
✅ Tight monetary policies by the CBN to fight inflation and rebuild credibility
These moves boosted sectors like ICT, finance, and transport.
But… Afrinvest says deep structural problems remain:
• Soaring inflation, especially food inflation, keeps hurting households.
• ⚡ Power sector crisis — liquidity issues, tariff disputes, and unpaid debts.
• ️ Oil output slump — theft, vandalism, and underinvestment keep production below potential.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up
For Nigeria to hit $1 trillion by 2030, Afrinvest notes that:
• Nominal GDP must exceed $800 billion by 2026, requiring at least 40% annual growth in 2025 and 2026 (an almost impossible feat).
• Alternatively, the naira would need to strengthen massively — to around ₦500/$ by 2027.
Afrinvest’s Advice
To stand a real chance, Nigeria must:
• Increase oil production to at least 2 million barrels/day
• Enforce cost-reflective electricity tariffs while shielding the poor with subsidies
• Ensure FX stability
• Implement tax reforms
• Strengthen food security with agricultural protection and safety nets
Bottom Line
Afrinvest praises Tinubu’s courage in pushing reforms, but says the dream of a $1 trillion economy by 2030 “lacks fundamental drivers” unless Nigeria tackles its toughest challenges head-on.
Quick Take: Nigeria has the potential, but without fixing power, oil, inflation, and food security, the trillion-dollar economy may remain just a political slogan.