Please find below a mid-day note on the Equities and Fixed Income market:
Equities Snapshot
On Paper, May has been a good month; we are on track for the fourth positive monthly performance this year (NGXASI up 8.2% MtD). In reality, it has been relatively tepid; after the Earnings rally fizzled out in early May, locals have been net-sellers across board, juxtapose the unending foreign sell pressure in the blue chip banks and you get a month that has been relatively bearish. The reasons are not far fetched; political uncertainty remains entrenched, the CBN's unexpected rate hike also aided the bearish tilt, while local institutional appetite for risk assets remains low. It is very likely, we would get more of the same in June and maybe some reprieve in July ahead of H1 numbers.
On the day, trade metrics have been shallow; for perspective, MTNN alone has accounted for 63% of value, while the broad index has slipped 6bps.
Oil prices have trended north today (BRENT up 2%) after EU Bloc leaders agreed to ban 90% of Russian Crude by year-end.
Dissecting the day's event
4mn+ traded in MTNN NL today; buyers have been a mix of local and foreign accounts. Yesterday, we highlighted a switch (sell STANBIC and buy MTNN) and today, we note that yesterday's NESTLE sellers have been ploughing the cash back into MTNN. This has been the case for a while, no decent offshore money (new money) has trickled into the system since FX became illiquid and most of the foreign trades have been ''switches'', selling the bellwether banks have been the focal point for raising cash.
Slightly better reaction in UBN today, though the stock's price remains unchanged. Market bids have been stronger (best bid at ₦6.45), while offers are relatively scanty. The blue chip banks continue to trend lower; GTCO down 44bps ( we have spoken on this before, decent foreign offers shown around at ₦23), ZENITHBA NL has slipped 1%, UBA NL down 1.27%, while FBNH & ACCESS both down c.0.50%.
It has been a mixed bag in the consumer space; FLOURMLL NL announced its results late yesterday and declared ₦2.15 dividend, 2021
dividend was ₦1.65 (stock is unchanged), HONYFLOUR down 3% on the heels of speculative sell pressure, OKOMU & PRESCO trading at deep discounts to reference price (stock price still unchanged), while it has been quiet in the brewers (NB NL on full offer for the umpteenth time).
Despite the current tepid streak, we might see some late action in the day as PMs and book traders try to rebalance their portfolios and ''window dress'' valuations, however, it is very likely any decent rebalancing would be kept for June's month-end.
Benchmarks
The NGSE ASI has slipped 6bps.
Fixed-Income
Flows remain light in the bond market as most big buyers stay on the sidelines. Overall yields are flat as we continue to see investors cherry pick offers across the curve. Value traded is c. N3 billion with most flows on the 27s. Across bills, overall yields are stable as buyers look forward to Thursday’s OMO auction. Value traded is c. N1 billion with most flows on August Special bills.